From: heb_roots_chr@mail.geocities.com
Sent: Tuesday, October 7, 1997 2:28 AM
To: Hebraic Heritage Newsgroup
Subject: Iran Missile Technology
From: "EDWARD L CHUMNEY" <chumney@timken.com>
Subject: Iran Missile Technology
To: <HEB_ROOTS_CHR@geocities.com>
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THE JERUSALEM POST DAILY INTERNET EDITION
Wednesday, October 1, 1997
29 Elul 5757
Israel in Iranian missile range by 1999
By STEVE RODAN and news agencies
JERUSALEM (October 1) - With the help of advanced Russian technology, Iran will
be able to produce a medium-range missile that would put Israel in striking
range within 18 months, an official said yesterday.Together with Iranian efforts
to develop a nuclear weapon, the missile program could have serious
implications for the balance of power in the region. Hundreds of Russian
scientists and technicians were involved in the project, the official told
reporters at a briefing.
He said that two Russian outfits - the Polyus Research Institute in Moscow and
Kutznetzov, formerly NPO-Trud, in the town of Samara - were developing the
engine and guidance system of the missile. Tests of some components were
carried out recently and were successful.
Another official said two Russian academic institutions were involved in
developing rocket propulsion systems - the Bauman National Technical University
in Moscow and the Tsagi Institute.
The official estimated that within 18 months, Iran will be able to produce the
Shihab 3, a liquid-fuel missile with a range of 1,300 kilometers and a payload
of 700 kilograms. It was the most detailed warning issued yet by Israel of the
threat posed by Russian aid to Iran. Israel has been trying to persuade the
United States to take sanctions against Moscow's participation in Teheran's
ballistic missile and non-conventional weapons programs. Sources said that in
all, Iran is developing four missiles.
The Shihab 3 is considered the completed version of North Korea's Nodung
missile. The Shihab 4 - with a range of 2,000 kilometers and a payload of more
than one ton - is based on the technology of the Russian SS-4.
Two other planned missile programs, which have not been named, aim to produce
missiles with a range of 4,500 to 10,000 kilometers. The latter would be able
to strike the east coast of the US.
In an interview today with The Jerusalem Post, Defense Minister Yitzhak
Mordechai says that Iran is on the verge of producing medium-range missiles
and would be able to deploy them by 1999, given continued Russian help.
"The picture is very clear to Israel and the US," the source said. "The
argument is at what point will Iran be able to develop missiles independently
without Russian help."
An Israeli official monitoring the Iranian program agreed.
"There is a sense of urgency in both Israel and in the US," he said. "The
assessments are the same. We have some disagreement about tactics, or how to
deal with Russia."
Yiftah Shapir, a researcher at Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for
Strategic Studies, thought Israel was overestimating Iran's technological
capabilities.
"This assessment seems very exaggerated," he said. "It will take several
years of tests until the missile is operational. Take India. It took them six
to seven years of tests until its missile moved out of the development stage
to the operational stage."
The joint US-Israeli intelligence assessment is that the Shihab 3 is making
significant progress. Since development was launched in 1994, the missile
has completed required wind tunnel tests of the cone, and the engine has
been tested as well, sources said. The navigation and control systems are
believed to be in stages of advanced development although they may not have
been completed. Once all the components are completed, it would take a year
to integrate them, sources said.
The navigation and control systems are believed to be in stages of advanced
development although they may not have been completed. Once all the components
are completed, it would take a year to integrate them, sources said.
Israeli officials have said that Russian aid to Iran was in violation of the
Missile Control Technology Regime, ratified in 1987 and signed by Russia
in 1996. Article 1 of the MCTR bans the transfer of missile technology.
But Israel and the US disagree about how to deal with the Russian assistance
to Iran. The US has expressed concern about Russia's aid to Iran but has
rejected calls by Israeli leaders to cut aid to Moscow. Mordechai says he
supports lobbying Congress to cut funds to the Russians.
But so far the Clinton administration has reacted angrily to attempts to lobby
Congress on this issue. A warning to this effect was issued last week in
Washington to Foreign Ministry official Shimon Stein. Israeli diplomatic
sources said the White House seemed to fear that too much pressure on Russia
could endanger the position of President Boris Yeltsin.
"We want more drastic action taken against Russia," an Israeli official
said. "At the same time, we know that Russia is a superpower and you have to
be very careful how you treat it."
Russia has consistently denied helping Iran's ballistic missile program. But
Israeli and US intelligence sources say Yeltsin's aides have known about the
massive technology transfer from the start. Israel believes that Moscow is in
a rush to try to complete Iran's ballistic missile program before coming under
heavy pressure to drop its role. The sources said that Russian companies,
including state-owned concerns, were making several hundred million dollars
from the missile development program. They asserted that the sum seemed paltry
compared to the billions of dollars in annual Russian arms sales.But Moscow
may consider Iran as a strategic ally in threatening Western interests in the
Gulf and Asia, a source said.
"This program is a good opportunity for Russia to gain leverage over Iran and
endanger US interests in the Gulf and become a regional power."
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